Operations

Haulage Is Fragmenting. Couriers Are Concentrating.

On 13 October 2026 the Office for National Statistics published new figures on how concentrated UK industries are, and how that has changed since 2007. The headline is economy-wide: weighted by turnover, the share held by the five largest firms in each industry averaged 45% in 2010 and 38% in 2025. But underneath that average, the data tells a very specific story about logistics, and it's one that small hauliers will recognise.

What the ONS actually measured

The main measure is the five-firm concentration ratio (CR5): the share of an industry's total turnover earned by its five largest businesses. A CR5 of 14% means the top five firms between them take 14p of every pound spent in that industry. The ONS also publishes the share held by the top 10 and top 20, and a second measure, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which gives more weight to the very largest players.

The figures come from the Inter-Departmental Business Register, with a cross-check against the Annual Business Survey. They're published as official statistics in development, so they may be revised.

Road haulage: fragmented, and became more so

In 2007, the five largest road freight businesses earned 19% of the industry's turnover. By 2021 that had fallen to 9%. It has recovered a little since, to 16% in 2024 and 14% in 2025, but even the top 20 firms combined account for only 23% of turnover. The industry's HHI is 75, among the lowest anywhere in transport.

Importantly, this is the one trend in the logistics data where both of the ONS's sources agree: the Annual Business Survey shows the top-five share falling from 22% in 2007 to 14% in 2024.

Put that alongside the Traffic Commissioners' figure of 64,246 goods vehicle operator licences in issue in 2025-26, and the picture is clear. UK haulage is not an industry run by a handful of big fleets. It's run by thousands of small and medium operators, none of whom individually has much influence over price. That's the structural backdrop to the cost and margin pressure we set out in The Small Operator Margin Squeeze.

Couriers: the one part of logistics concentrating

Parcels and courier work is moving the other way. The top-five share of "other postal and courier activities" rose from 33% in 2017 to 46% in 2024 and 2025.

The top-10 and top-20 figures show where that share came from. Firms ranked sixth to twentieth held 30% of courier turnover in 2017 and only 20% in 2025. The gain went to the very largest firms, and came mainly at the expense of the next tier down rather than the smallest operators.

One important caveat: the Annual Business Survey doesn't show the same rise. On that measure the courier top-five share was 40% in 2017 and 39% in 2024. Until the survey data for 2025 is published, treat this as a likely trend rather than a confirmed one.

Warehousing: moderately concentrated, no clear direction

The five largest warehousing and storage businesses hold around 40% of turnover, and have done for most of the last decade. The two ONS sources disagree on which way it's moving over the full period: the register shows a fall from 47% in 2007, the survey shows a rise from 32%. Both put it at around 40% today. The honest reading is a stable, moderately concentrated industry, not one being taken over.

What this doesn't tell you

Concentration figures are national turnover shares. They don't measure competition on a particular route or in a particular region, where a handful of operators can still dominate. And the ONS itself warns that higher concentration doesn't by itself mean weaker competition: technology and differences between markets matter too. Its estimates of business dynamism and price markups are due in December 2026.

Why it matters for your operator's licence

A fragmented market is a competitive one. That's good for customers, and hard on the operators inside it. When no single haulier can set the rate, the pressure lands on costs, and the costs easiest to squeeze are the ones that don't show up straight away: maintenance intervals, defect follow-up, the time it takes to keep compliance records honest.

That's exactly the route by which commercial pressure turns into a DVSA finding. The structure of the market isn't something any one operator can change. Whether your compliance holds up while you compete in it is.

If you'd like an independent view of whether your operation's maintenance and compliance systems are keeping pace with commercial pressure, get in touch for a friendly, no-obligation conversation.

Sources

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